Head Emerging Risks and Scenario Development

About the role

Empowering Africa's tomorrow, together...one story at a time. With over 100 years of rich history and strongly positioned as a local bank with regional and international expertise, a career with our family offers the opportunity to be part of this exciting growth journey, to reset our future and shape our destiny as a proudly African group. Job Summary To support the Head: Stress Testing and Scenario Planning by taking responsibility for horizon scanning activities to identify emerging risks and opportunities as well as developing scenarios to assess the impact of these on Absa Group and its subsidiaries. The focus will primarily be on (i) macro-economic variables and their drivers, (ii) regulatory change and (iii) select thematic items as applicable. To take responsibility and accountability for coordinating, developing and executing best practice processes and tools to assist business and legal entities in optimizing scenario development and impact assessments. To develop, maintain and manage relationships with internal and external stakeholders for all areas of responsibility. Provide leadership and best practice advice with regard to scenario development. Ensure quality forecasts (intra-month, full year, multi- year, scenarios) across the portfolios to support the relevant needs of business functions. Assess probability and severity of different operating environment scenarios. Job Description Accountability: Stress Testing Strategy, Framework and Execution Understand and comply with all applicable governance, compliance and risk policies and procedures, ensuring that the relevant documentation is in place. Manage and refine the scenario development governance process to ensure robust challenge of scenario and stress test results, striving to ensure buy-in and integrity of results. Submit regular and accurate reports to senior management and committees where applicable. Effectively and efficiently handle queries from internal and external stakeholders (e.g. regulators) on reports / submissions. Ensure appropriate early warning indicators are in place to flag potential consequences to senior management. Analyse effectiveness of processes and systems in use in the department and make recommendations for improvements and assist in UAT / development as required. Accountability: Emerging Risks (including regulatory) Evaluate peer analysis as it pertains to select themes / metrics e.g. capital and liquidity management. Liaise with internal stakeholders and identify portfolio construction, offerings and exposure levels and whether these constitute risks/ opportunities relative to the current and expected operating environment. Stay abreast of new developments in the stress testing world, especially about geopolitical risk, market paradigm shifts and regulatory developments as well as socialise these, as appropriate. Research news, articles and risk publications (internal and external) to build appropriate scenarios to support different stress testing activities. Identify where different economies are with respect to the economic cycle and expectations on cycle phase duration. Monitor regulatory change and assess the impact thereof on AGL and its subsidiaries. Where applicable lead/ co-ordinate impact assessments and/ or advocacy on regulations. Where applicable, develop and run surveys internally and/ or externally as required. Actively participate in industry forums and associations to keep up to date with the latest developments. Accountability: Scenario development and impact assessment Where necessary, take accountability for the development, ownership and maintenance of additional models required to enable efficient and effective scenario development. Leading role and counsel as a subject matter expert on macro-economics, impact assessment, financial and non-financial forecasting and best in class quantitative risk management practices. Source or develop macro-economic variables views for the scenarios above from Economic Research and / or other sources to support Financial Planning, IFRS 9 and recovery and resolution planning and other scenarios. Manage relevant internal and external audit requirements regarding the development of macroeconomic forward-looking views, with special focus on IFRS 9 and other regulatory scenarios. Work with internal stakeholders to identify relative severity and probabilities of different scenarios. Provide review and challenge of business and economic assumptions in different scenarios. Provide inputs to the senior management and Board submissions. Accountability: Stakeholder and Relationship Management Be the main contact point to ensure alignment of macroeconomic views for Financial Planning, IFRS 9 credit impairment calculations and stress testing. Explain requirements to stakeholders to ensure that all scenarios are relevant, fit for purpose and robustly test the vulnerabilities of AGL and its subsidiaries. This includes interlock on forward-look

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